US Corn Stocks Below Expectations; Soys Above 




US corn stockpiles as of the end of the 2021-22 marketing year were tighter than expected amid a smaller crop, while it was the opposite situation for soybeans. 


A USDA grain stocks report on Friday pegged national corn stocks as of Sept. 1 (ending stocks for 2021-22) at 1.38 billion bu. That is up 12% from a year earlier but well below the government’s September supply-demand forecast of 1.525 billion and the average pre-report trade guess of 1.495 billion. 


Amid the tighter stocks, and based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, 2021 corn production was revised down 41.4 million bu from the previous estimate of 15.115 billion. 


Meanwhile, old-crop soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 were estimated at 274 million bu, an increase of 7% from last year and topping both the September supply-demand projection of 240 million and the average trade guess of 243 million. 


With stocks higher, the USDA revised up 2021 soybean production by 30.2 million bu from the earlier estimate of 4.435 billion. 


Corn futures were trading 10-11 cents/bu higher after the report’s release, while soybeans were down 25-28 cents. 


To achieve the reduction in the corn production estimate, today’s report lowered 2021 harvested area by 100,000 acres to 85.3 million, while the average yield was trimmed 0.3 bu/acre to 176.7 bu. On the other hand, 2021 soybean harvested area was bumped modestly higher to 86.3 million acres, and the average yield increased 0.3 bu to 51.7 bu/acre. 


Of the total corn stocks, 510 million bu were reported stored on farms as of Sept. 1, up 29% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 867 million bu, were up 3% from a year ago. The June-August 2022 indicated disappearance was 2.97 billion bu, compared with 2.88 billion bu during the same period last year. 


Soybean stocks stored on farms as of Sept. 1 totaled 62.9 million bu, down 8% from a year ago, and off-farm stocks, at 211 million bu, were up 12% from last September. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2022 totaled 698 million bu, up 36% from last year. 


All wheat stored in all positions on Sept. 1 came in at an estimated 1.78 billion bu, up less than 1% from a year ago and near the average trade guess of 1.793 billion bu. 


On-farm wheat stocks were estimated at 591 million bu, up 41% from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.18 billion bu, were down 13%. The  
June-August 2022 indicated disappearance was 543 million bu, a drop of 24% on the year. 


US durum wheat stocks totaled 53.9 million bu as of Sept. 1, up 17% from a year ago, while barley stocks jumped 22% to 165 million, and oat stocks edged up 1% to 62.6 million bu. 


Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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