US All Wheat Output Down from Earlier Expectations 




US all wheat production did not measure up to earlier expectations this year, amid downgrades for all types. 


A USDA small grains summary report on Friday estimated 2022 American all wheat output at 1.649 billion bu, well below the 1.783-billion bu estimate contained in the government’s September supply-demand report and below the average pre-report trade guess of 1.784 billion. Wheat futures were trading strongly higher after the report’s release, up anywhere from about 25 to 40 cents bu. 


If accurate, this year’s US all wheat crop is essentially little changed from the 2021 crop of 1.646 billion bu. 


Today’s report, which represents the latest and best estimate of US small grains production for this year, pegged the 2022 winter wheat crop at 1.10 billion bu, below the previous forecast of 1.197 billion and down 14% on the year. Other spring wheat output was trimmed to 482 million bu from 511.7 million previously, although that remains up 46% from last year’s drought-reduced crop. At 64 million bu, US durum production is up 70% from a year ago but still down from the USDA’s earlier estimate of 73.5 million. 


At 531 million bu, estimated 2022 US Hard Red Winter output is down from the previous estimate of 576 million and almost 30% below a year earlier. Soft Red production was trimmed to 337 million bu from 381 million and is now down 7% from last year.  


US all wheat harvested area for 2022 totaled 35.5 million acres, down 4% from last year and a decline that was almost completely offset by a 2.2 bu/acre improvement in the average yield to 46.5 bu. 


For this year’s winter wheat crop, the overall average yield was down 3.2 bu/acre from 2021 at 47 bu, while harvested area declined 8% to 23.5 million acres.  


In contrast, the US other spring wheat yield improved 13.6 bu/acre from a year ago to 46.2 bu, with a new record high posted in the No. 1 production state of North Dakota at 50 bu/acre. The average durum yield rebounded strongly as well, up 15.8 bu/acre from last year to 40.5 bu, to go along with a 4% increase in harvested area to 1.58 million acres. 


Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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