Big Swing in Oat Production, Supplies, Stocks 




Production, total supply, and ending stocks will rebound for most Prairie crops in 2022-23, but perhaps none so dramatically as oats. 


Agriculture Canada’s latest monthly supply-demand estimates on Friday – which reflect the Statistics Canada Sept. 7 grain stocks report as well as the Sept. 14 crop production report – pegged the total 2022-23 oat supply at a comfortable 4.98 million tonnes, up from 4.82 million in August and now 43% above the drought-impacted 2021-22 marketing year. 


With supply rising, ending stocks are seen this month at 700,000 tonnes, up 100,000 from August and 18% above the pre-2021 five-year average.  


Amid the heavier supply, the average oat price is not surprisingly predicted to fall sharply in 2022-23, dipping to $360/tonne. That is down $435 in August and well below the 2021-22 record of $565 although still historically high, supported by strong prices for other crops. 


The bigger total oat supply is primarily the result of an expected much larger crop this year, with StatsCan’s September production report putting the crop at 4.65 million tonnes, up 66% from a year earlier and 21% above the five-year average. A larger carryin from 2021-22 adds to the supply as well, as the StatsCan stocks report estimated national oat stockpiles as of July 31 at 318,000 tonnes, versus the August Ag Canada projection of 220,000. 


In other supply-demand changes, 2022-23 canola ending stocks are up 50,000 tonnes from last month to 500,000, still down from previous year’s 875,000 and the 2020-21 level of 1.776 million. At just over 20 million tonnes, the total supply for 2022-23 is up about 4.4 million from a year earlier although still about 3 million below the 2020-21 pre-drought level. 


The 2022-23 season average canola price is projected at $865/tonne this month, compared to $900 in August and $1,075 in 2021-22. 


Total estimated all wheat supplies are now up to 38.49 million from 38.32 million in August and just 28.41 million a year earlier, as production was revised up by StatsCan to 34.7 million tonnes from 34.5 million last month and 22.96 million in 2021-22. Ending stocks are forecast at 6.3 million tonnes, up from 400,000 from last month and above the 2021-22 and 2020-21 levels of 3.67 million and 5.95 million, respectively. 


At 550,000 tonnes, forecasted barley ending stocks for 2022-23 are up 50,000 from last month and above 504,000 the previous year but still below 711,000 in 2020-21.  



Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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